📈 Pi Cycle Top Indicator — Is Bitcoin Near the Top?

The Pi Cycle Top is the single best known short term Bitcoin top indicator. It has called the precise top of every major Bitcoin bull cycle since 2013, including the 2017 top at $19,800 and the 2021 top at $69,000, in every case firing within three days of the actual peak. This page tracks it live with real Bitcoin price data so you can see exactly how close the current cycle is to a top signal.

What Is the Pi Cycle Top Indicator?

The Pi Cycle Top is a technical indicator created by Philip Swift of LookIntoBitcoin. It plots two moving averages on the Bitcoin price chart:

• 111DMA: The 111-day simple moving average of Bitcoin's daily closing price.
• 350DMA × 2: The 350-day simple moving average multiplied by two.

The indicator signals a market cycle top when the faster 111DMA crosses above the slower 350DMA × 2. The crossover is what matters. When it happens, history says you have a very short window before Bitcoin enters a steep drawdown.

The name comes from the ratio of the two moving average lengths. 350 divided by 111 equals approximately 3.153, which is close to Pi (3.14159). The numbers were not derived from a mathematical model. They were chosen because they fit the data: every prior Bitcoin cycle top had the 111DMA touching the 350DMA × 2 within days of the actual peak.

Historical Track Record

The indicator has called three Bitcoin cycle tops within 3 days of the actual peak.

• April 2013: Signal fired at the local top near $260 before a 75 percent drawdown.
• December 2013: Signal fired at $1,150 before an 85 percent drawdown that lasted into 2015.
• December 2017: Signal fired within 3 days of the $19,800 cycle top before an 84 percent drawdown to $3,200.
• April 2021: Signal fired within 3 days of the $64,800 local top before a 53 percent drawdown to $30,000 (then a second leg to $69,000 in November).

The 2021 cycle is the one most often debated. The Pi Cycle fired in April, BTC dropped hard, then rallied to a new high of $69,000 in November before the real cycle low. The indicator caught the first major distribution event. The November top did not produce a Pi Cycle signal but did produce other warning signals (e.g. on-chain MVRV Z-score). No single indicator is sufficient on its own.

How to Read the Live Tracker

The widget above pulls multi-year Bitcoin daily closing prices from CryptoCompare's free API and computes the 111-day and 350-day moving averages in your browser. The key values displayed:

• BTC price: Current Bitcoin spot price (daily close).
• 111DMA: Current value of the 111-day moving average.
• 350DMA × 2: Current value of the 350-day moving average multiplied by two.
• Gap to top: Percentage gap between the 111DMA and 350DMA × 2. When this hits zero, the indicator triggers.
• Proximity gauge: A visual gauge from 0 percent (cycle low) to 100 percent (top signal triggered).

The phase label above the gauge tells you in plain English where the market sits: early accumulation, mid cycle momentum, late bull, danger zone, or top signal triggered.

What to Do When the Signal Fires

This is not financial advice. The historical pattern is that within 1 to 3 days of a Pi Cycle Top trigger, Bitcoin enters a significant correction lasting weeks to months. Most strategies built around the indicator involve scaling out of risk as the gap closes, rather than waiting for the precise trigger and trying to sell the exact top.

"The Pi Cycle does not tell you Bitcoin is going to zero. It tells you that the easy money phase of this cycle is probably ending. That's a useful signal, not a sell-everything-now command." — Philip Swift, indicator creator

Practical interpretations used by traders:

• Scale out gradually as the indicator moves from "late bull" to "danger zone" rather than trying to time the precise trigger.
• Combine with on-chain metrics like MVRV Z-score, Puell Multiple, and exchange inflow data for confirmation.
• Don't bet the cycle is over just because of one indicator. The 2021 cycle saw a Pi Cycle signal in April and a higher high in November.
• Have a written plan before the signal triggers, not after. Decisions made in real time during volatile moves are almost always worse than decisions made in advance.

Limitations and Criticisms

The Pi Cycle is not magic. It has limitations worth understanding before relying on it.

Small sample size

The indicator has fired three times in Bitcoin's history (2013 twice, 2017, 2021). Three data points are not a statistically rigorous base. Future market structure may not replicate the conditions that made the indicator work in the past.

Cycle lengthening

Many analysts believe Bitcoin's market cycles are getting longer as the asset matures and institutional capital enters. If true, the indicator may need adjustment or may trigger earlier (or later) than historical tops.

Spot ETF flows

Since the approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, BTC market structure has shifted significantly. Large institutional flows can sustain price levels in ways that did not exist in prior cycles. This may affect when and how the Pi Cycle signal develops.

Not a low signal

The Pi Cycle Top tells you about tops. It does not tell you about cycle lows. For low signals, traders typically watch the 200-week moving average, the Bitcoin Realized Price, or Mayer Multiple ratios.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Bitcoin near the top right now?

The live widget at the top of this page shows the current gap between the 111DMA and 350DMA × 2. When the gap reaches zero, the indicator triggers. The closer the gap, the closer the signal.

Why does the indicator use 111 and 350?

350 divided by 111 is approximately 3.153, close to the mathematical constant Pi. The numbers were chosen empirically to match prior Bitcoin cycle tops, not derived from a theoretical model.

Who created the Pi Cycle Top indicator?

Philip Swift, founder of LookIntoBitcoin, introduced the Pi Cycle Top in April 2019.

Has the Pi Cycle ever given a false signal?

Each historical Pi Cycle Top trigger preceded a significant Bitcoin correction. However, the 2021 cycle had a higher high in November after the April Pi Cycle signal, which some traders treat as a partial false signal.

Where does the data come from?

This page uses Bitcoin daily closing price data from CryptoCompare's free public API. The moving averages are computed in your browser.

How often does this page update?

Data is fetched fresh every time you load or refresh the page. Bitcoin spot price and the indicator values are computed from the most recent daily closes available from the API.